Episodes
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The chalkiest home run prop on Friday's board is Jac Caglianone over 0.5 home runs at +213, with the Royals at the Angels. That price implies 31.9%. Five thousand play-by-play simulations put him at 18.5%, which grades Negative EV at about -42%; it becomes a play at +441 or longer. 37 factors were switched off one at a time to find what the simulator was seeing. His own season form is the biggest thing holding the number up, worth about 3.2 points on a .064 home run rate and a 93 mph exit velocity. Against it: Grayson Rodriguez misses bats, a .241 career strikeout rate with a 96.5 mph fastball
How the simulator behind negativeev.com works, start to finish. Train on every pitch of play-by-play data through yesterday, then play each game on the slate out pitch by pitch, thousands of times, and count how often your bet cashes. What the three models actually predict, why the engine plays whole games instead of looking up a rating, what a price's implied probability is claiming, and how a simulator gets tested against reality. How the simulator was built, in writing: https://negativeev.com/about/building-the-simulator?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=podcast-97320a32 Check
The chalkiest home run prop on Wednesday's board is Munetaka Murakami over 0.5 home runs at +270, in Cincinnati at the White Sox. That price implies 27.0%. Five thousand play-by-play simulations put him at 19.3%, which grades Negative EV at about -28%; it becomes a play at +417 or longer. 37 factors were switched off one at a time to find what the simulator was seeing. Nothing about the hitter separated from noise. What costs him is trips to the plate: 16% at four trips, 23% at five, 28% at six, and six trips happens 3 times in 100. Check any bet free at negativeev.com. Narration on the episod
Shohei Ohtani, over 0.5 home runs, Kansas City at the Dodgers. The +219 price implies a 31.3% chance. Five thousand pitch-by-pitch simulations say 25.6%, which grades Negative EV at about -18%; the bet becomes a play at +291 or longer. His own recent form takes 3.3 points off the number and Michael Wacha's season form another 2.7, while Ohtani's career profile as a hitter adds 5.7 and is the entire case for the bet. Narration on this episode is synthetic, voiced from the written read; the analysis is the simulator's.
The chalkiest home run prop on Monday's MLB board, checked against 5,000 simulations of Kansas City at the Dodgers. Shohei Ohtani, over 0.5 home runs, +225. The price implies 30.8%. The simulations say 24.7% — Negative EV at about -20%, and it becomes a play at +305 or longer. Every measurable thing about the opposing pitcher pushes the number down, even though Noah Cameron's line looks unremarkable. Batting at home costs another point and a half, because a home hitter only gets his fifth or sixth trip if the game needs a bottom of the ninth. The hitters around Ohtani add nothing. And one th
The most-bet home run prop on the Aug 9 MLB board, checked against 5,000 play-by-play simulations. The +263 price implies 27.5%; the simulations say 20.5%. Negative EV at -26%, a play only at +388 or longer. A slate preview for Sunday's games. Narration is synthetic (text-to-speech from the written read); the analysis is the simulator's. More at negativeev.com
Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run, Toronto at Philadelphia, is the chalkiest bet on the August 8 MLB board, and it is the one we take apart before first pitch. The price is +231, which asks for a home run 30.2% of the time. Our simulator plays the game out 5,000 times and has him going deep 27.1% of the time. That is Negative EV at -10%. It would take +269 to break even. Then the part that is actually interesting, which is what we could not find. Nothing that might drag his number down cleared its own noise floor, so the things holding it up are the whole story: his own career profile, worth ab
Our first Positive EV chalk of the day. Shohei Ohtani, anytime home run, +276. Why the sims like it, and why that still does not make it a lock.
Is he a good play? Is he a bad play? FIND OUT.
Nine books priced Kyle Schwarber to homer at +175, which implies 36.4%. Five thousand pitch-by-pitch replays of the game said 31.6%, making it a -13.2% bet that would need +217 to break even. Recorded before first pitch.
