House View brings you daily, weekly, and monthly content covering our multi-asset views on economic trends and financial markets from the UBS Chief Investment Office
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Investors are looking to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech for clues on the path of interest rates. But sticky inflation, geopolitical risks, and strong AI investment could keep policy uncertainty elevated.
This week's pullback in longer-term interest rates looks more like a pause than a reset. Behind the move sits a deeper shift in how investors price growth, policy uncertainty, and government debt.
As investors look to NVIDIA’s earnings later today, we see supportive AI fundamentals across demand, monetization, and earnings trends. We continue to favor a selective, diversified allocation focused on AI enablers and defensive technology segments.
Markets have continued to climb higher, supported by strong corporate earnings, robust AI-related investment, and expectations that inflation can ease gradually. But the outlook is not dependent on one factor alone. The durability of AI capex, evidence of monetization, the breadth of earnings growth, and the path of inflation and monetary policy will all be important in determining whether the constructive backdrop can continue. To discuss the latest market developments and portfolio implications, Kiran Ganesh, Global Head of Investment Communications, will be joined by Frederick Mellors, Head
Renewed concerns about US government finances are adding pressure to the dollar. Gold, broad commodities, and select global currencies can help investors diversify dollar exposure and build more resilient portfolios.
Welcome to CIO Jumpstart, your guide to the main market events coming up in the week ahead
As long-term yields remain elevated, market adjustments may increasingly occur through currencies and commodities rather than bonds alone. A weaker US dollar could support gold and help ease financial conditions, while underpinning a diversified investment approach.
Markets have welcomed signs that US policymakers are willing to respond when bond volatility rises too far, too fast. But we think lasting stability in bond markets will ultimately depend on the underlying inflation, fiscal, and demand backdrop.
Global equities have remained under pressure amid concerns over higher bond yields, rising oil prices, and the outlook for AI capital spending. But we believe the outlook for stocks remains positive. Underlying inflation remains under control, and earnings growth has picked up. Against this backdrop, we continue to view equities as Attractive.
The recent rise in long-term yields reflects new bond supply and persistent concerns over inflation and deficits. We do not think this undermines the case for quality fixed income, but it does strengthen the need to focus on shorter- and medium-maturity bonds, where we see an attractive risk-reward.
Implied volatility may not stay low for long, but resilient economic data, strong corporate earnings, and the prospect of a steady Fed should continue to support our positive view on risk assets.
Cooling US inflation has helped global stocks reach new highs, but concentration risks remain elevated. We see opportunities to diversify across Europe, Japan, and Asia, supported by earnings resilience, improving cyclical momentum, and structural growth trends.
Higher oil prices have tempered investor sentiment ahead of July’s CPI report. We expect core inflation to trend lower in the coming months, allowing the Fed to hold interest rates steady. This would be supportive of our preference for short- and medium-duration quality fixed income.
NVIDIA’s financing push has raised fresh questions about circularity in the AI trade, but strong cloud demand and rising advance orders continue to support our constructive view. We continue to recommend diversified exposure.
Welcome to CIO Jumpstart, your guide to the main market events coming up in the week ahead
Renewed uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil prices and bond yields higher, reviving concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to tighten policy. Policymakers have made clear that they are willing to raise rates if inflation remains too high. But we believe moderate labor-market slowing and further underlying disinflation will allow the Fed to remain on hold this year.
Gold has risen to its highest level in seven weeks, and we think the medium- to longer-term case for holding the metal remains supported by lower real rates, a softer dollar, and central bank buying. We continue to see a role for gold in diversified portfolios.
Recovering sentiment toward the AI trade, strong earnings results, and signs of diplomatic progress in the US-Iran conflict pushed equities higher on Tuesday. Continued AI investment, broadening earnings growth, and a patient Fed support our constructive view on equities.
The AI story is evolving beyond a narrow tech trade. We see opportunities across the broader value chain, from power to chips to health care.
July brought a sharp reminder that geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and crowded trades can still unsettle markets. Even so, stronger earnings, moderating inflation, and resilient demand should help sustain a constructive backdrop for diversified investors.
AI investment and monetization, resilient US growth, and a patient Fed should help keep the US equity rally on track. We believe investors should remain broadly diversified to capture opportunities beyond tech as market leadership continues to widen.
The latest hyperscaler earnings point to strong capital expenditures in the near term and encouraging monetization trends. But pressure on cash flows could lead to a slowdown in capex beyond next year. We think the AI investment opportunity has become more differentiated, and recommend exposure to select semis and defensive tech.
After months of geopolitical uncertainty and heightened market volatility, markets have been quick to respond to both signs of de-escalation and fresh sources of tension. Yet the outlook remains far from straightforward. Questions around the durability of the AI-driven market rally, the path of inflation and interest rates, and the risk of renewed geopolitical tensions continue to shape the investment landscape. Hear from Christine Novakovic, Head of Global Wealth Management EMEA, alongside Themis Themistocleous, Head of the Chief Investment Office EMEA, and special guest R.P. Eddy, CEO of Erg
While the Fed is likely to hold rates steady today, investors should watch for longer-term changes to how it communicates policy and manages its balance sheet. Potential changes may affect rate volatility, long-term yields, and the role of Fed support in bond markets.
Markets are facing renewed pressure from geopolitical escalation, higher oil prices, rising bond yields, and questions over AI investment returns. Investors should focus on portfolio resilience and strategies that can help manage downside risk while preserving long-term upside potential.
